Energy is the cost shock
+27.9%
US motor fuel, August, year on year
Energy pushed overall inflation to 3.4%, while grocery prices rose 2.2%.
Source Supermarket News, Sep
Across every category
Three forces shaping the quarter
Prices are rising faster than demand
−1.5%
North America appliance sales at a US maker, Q2
It pushed through what it expects to be its largest annual price increase in over a decade. A US bottler grew volume 7.6% while aluminium costs cut its gross margin.
Housing is the soft spot
−8.8%
Q2 sales at a US building-products distributor
It cut its 2026 outlook and now expects single-family starts to fall by a mid- to high-single-digit percentage.
Beverages
Volume is growing, while aluminium cost is squeezing margin.
A US bottler: Q2 volume up 7.6%, net sales up 10.6%
Sparkling volume rose 7.0% and still volume 9.4%, with about 1 point from the July 4 timing shift. Aluminium added about $45 million in input costs, and gross margin fell 210 bps to 37.9%.
Source Company release, 5 Aug
Food & grocery
Grocery inflation is cooling.
US grocery prices flat in August, up 2.2% for the year
Beef and veal were up 5.9% and fish and seafood 6.5%, while lettuce fell 6.2% after a 16.4% drop in July. Food away from home rose 3.4%.
Source Supermarket News, Sep
Home & personal care
Health and wellness is growing while household products shrink.
A US household-products maker: health and wellness up 16%, household down 18%
In the quarter to June, health and wellness volume rose 10 points while household volume fell 16 points, partly lapping last year's system-related shipments. Its sales outside the US are reported separately.
Health & pharma
GLP-1 drugs are driving unit volume, at lower margin.
A pharma wholesaler's US business grew 4.9% to $74.9 billion
Growth was driven by unit volume including specialty products and GLP-1 drugs, which carry lower gross margins. It raised its fiscal 2026 EPS guidance.
Source Company release, 5 Aug
Lubricants
Retail motor-oil prices have steadied after sharp 2026 increases, but base-oil supply is tight.
72 of 89 retail motor-oil prices unchanged between August and late September
Private-label increases kept the basket slightly higher, and 25.3% above February 2026.
Source JobbersWorld, 30 Sep
Group III base oil is still the constraint
Group III base oil in the 4 and 6 cSt grades remains extremely difficult to source, and crude is back above $100, according to JobbersWorld.
Source JobbersWorld, 14 Sep
Auto parts & industrial supply
The fleet is old, and parts demand recovered late in an auto-parts retailer's quarter.
A US auto-parts retailer's sales strengthened late in its quarter
Management said the first eight weeks of the quarter were difficult and that sales strengthened over the final eight weeks.
Source 24/7 Wall St., 22 Sep
The average US vehicle is 13 years old
There are about 293 million vehicles on US roads.
Source 24/7 Wall St., 26 Sep
An industrial distributor's North American business grew 11.9% in Q2
The figure covers its North American high-touch business only, excluding operations elsewhere.
Appliances & durables
Prices are rising while volumes fall.
A US appliance maker's North America sales fell 1.5% in Q2
Volume fell on an industry decline, while executed price increases lifted margin sequentially. It expects its full-year price increase to be the largest in over a decade.
Source Company release, 3 Aug
Building materials
Housing weakness is cutting volume.
A US building-products distributor: Q2 sales down 8.8% to $3.86 billion
Commodity deflation cut sales by 2.7%. Full-year sales guidance was cut to $14.0 billion to $14.8 billion.
Agriculture & inputs
Fertiliser prices are above last year, but well off spring peaks.
Seven of eight fertiliser products priced above 2025
Anhydrous ammonia was $945 a ton, up 22% on a year earlier, and urea $659, down about 24% from the spring peak.
